Extreme rainfall trends and return periods under CMIP6 scenarios in Southern Thailand

Information from the abstract

Southern Thailand has experienced increased rainfall and variability due to climate change, making it essential to understand future rainfall patterns under different scenarios for risk assessment in water management. This study analyzes extreme rainfall using observations from 14 gauges and projections from 10 CMIP6 models across four SSP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Bias correction, trend detection, and probability distribution fitting were applied to estimate return periods. Results revealed that bias-corrected ensemble rainfall performed best for all 14 stations. Significantly increasing rainfall trends were predominantly detected across the scenarios, with the strongest signal under SSP1-2.6 showing 13 out of 14 stations giving significant rainfall increases. The future monthly rainfall under all scenarios is projected to be higher, especially in the rainy season compared to the baseline, up to 83.8% and 95% for the east and west coasts, respectively. Substantial increments in the mid- and far-future periods (2040–2069 and 2070–2100) were indicated, particularly along the west coast, where extreme events such as 100-year return periods may significantly rise higher than 80% in some stations under SSP5-8.5, different from SSP1-2.6, with the change in between 30 and 50%. The findings provide critical evidence for climate-resilient water management and disaster preparedness in Southern Thailand.

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Related topics: Hydrology and Drought Analysis · Climate variability and models · Precipitation Measurement and Analysis