Information from the abstract
Most public investment feasibility studies rely on the linear assumption model (LAM), which assumes constant growth in revenues and costs and may overlook the underlying production structure. This study develops a Production Function-Based Financial Feasibility Model (PFFM) by integrating a Cobb–Douglas production function into cash flow analysis. It also applies the model to a 15-year electric bus project operated by the Khon Kaen Provincial Administrative Organization, covering three routes and a total investment of THB 285.05 million. The analysis uses deterministic projections based on expert-validated growth assumptions. Ordinary least squares estimation yields an energy elasticity of 0.990; however, because energy consumption is derived from a fixed rate per kilometre, this coefficient primarily reflects the internal consistency of the projections rather than an independently estimated behavioural relationship. Returns to scale are statistically indistinguishable from unity (RTS = 1.006; p = 0.95). Based solely on farebox and advertising revenues, both the LAM and PFFM indicate that the project is financially infeasible, with base-case NPVs of −THB 271.74 million and −THB 271.61 million, respectively, B/C ratios of approximately 0.54, and unattainable IRRs. This conclusion remains unchanged under a 30% increase in electricity prices. Although the two models produce similar results because RTS is close to unity, the PFFM provides a more transparent decomposition of fixed and marginal costs and clearer diagnostic insights into production technology and cost risk. In addition, an SROI analysis covering environmental, health, safety, and time-saving benefits, together with net-impact adjustments, yields a ratio of 3.45, indicating that the project generates substantial social value despite its financial infeasibility. The proposed framework therefore provides public agencies with a more comprehensive basis for investment decisions, subsidy design, and public service obligation policies.
Why this record is monitored
This record has an Impact Signal of 71/100 based on recency, source, collaboration, and bibliographic signals. It prioritizes monitoring and is not a judgment of research quality.
Related topics: Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure · Electric Power System Optimization · Energy Efficiency and Management
Thai researcher and institutional participation
Thirawat Chantuk · Pornthip Jatupornmongkolchai · Wiwatwong Bunnun · Silpakorn University · Rajamangala University of Technology Rattanakosin · Khon Kaen University
Data limitations
This page is a bibliographic record based on abstract-level information, not a full analysis or quality assessment. Verify the DOI and original article before citation.