Diarrhea Mortality and Flood Characteristics in SoutheastAsia: A Multicountry Case-Crossover Analysis

Information from the abstract

Abstract Floods can spread infectious diseases, including diarrhea, with transmission dynamics varying by flood levels. This study examined the effects of exposure to varying flood levels on diarrhea mortality in Southeast Asia. We performed a space-time-stratified case-crossover analysis using conditional quasi-Poisson regression. Daily diarrhea mortality data in Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines were analyzed. Flood days were identified using simulated inundation data from the Catchment-based Macro-scale Floodplain (CaMa-Flood) model, at ≥0.1, ≥0.5, and ≥1.0 m levels, as well as considering spatial extent. Subnational-region estimates were derived and then pooled into country and Southeast Asia estimates using multilevel meta-analysis. We observed increased risks due to floods at ≥0.5 and ≥0.1 m in Southeast Asia, with localized variations by flood metrics. The highest risks were at floods ≥1.0 m (East Malaysia, RR: 1.58 (95% CI: 1.09, 2.30)), ≥0.5 m (South Thailand, 1.98 (95% CI: 1.24, 3.16)), and ≥0.1 m (Visayas Philippines, 1.28 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.48)). While Luzon Philippines and South Thailand showed consistent risks with spatial extent, East and Central Malaysia and Mindanao Philippines suggested their potential influence. Accounting for flood depth and spread is crucial for understanding flood–diarrhea risks and informing flood management in Southeast Asia.

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Related topics: Climate Change and Health Impacts · Disaster Response and Management · Flood Risk Assessment and Management