Myanmar Migration to Thailand Post-2021 Coup: Legal Status, Labor Turnover, and Socio-Economic Implications

Information from the abstract

After the 2021 military coup in Myanmar, many people sought safety, decent work, and social protection in neighboring Thailand. This study examines how legal documentation status and Sense of Place (SOP) are associated with the workplace retention intentions of irregular Myanmar migrant workers in Mae Sot, Thailand. SOP is conceptualized through three key dimensions: emotional bonds to the surrounding environment (place attachment), the extent to which the place meets everyday needs (place dependence), and the way migrants identify with their host context (place identity). To explore these dynamics, we adopted an explanatory sequential mixed-methods approach, surveying 101 respondents between January and April 2024 and subsequently conducting in-depth interviews with 30 individuals between June and July 2024. Given the sensitivity of irregular migration and undocumented legal status, obtaining survey responses was challenging because many potential participants were concerned about privacy, identification, and possible legal exposure. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive comparisons, bivariate association tests with Goodman-calibrated minimum Bayes factors, LASSO-assisted variable screening, principal component analysis, and Bayesian mixed-effects ordinal probit models. The descriptive and bivariate results show that legal documentation status is positively associated with all SOP dimensions, job satisfaction, and willingness to remain in the current job. In the candidate model comparison, the Bayesian specification without legal status showed slightly better predictive performance than the corresponding specification with legal status. The primary five-category Bayesian mixed-effects model indicated positive conditional associations of Job Satisfaction, Place Attachment, and the structural workplace index with willingness to stay. It also indicated heterogeneity in the Place Attachment association across observed job tenure groups; this pattern is interpreted as a cross-sectional between-group difference rather than as evidence of individual change over time. Complementary Bayesian sensitivity analyses evaluate the multidimensional SOP construct, the incremental predictive contribution of legal status, sensitivity to alternative priors, and model diagnostics. The qualitative interviews further show that legal documentation is widely perceived as enabling broader employment opportunities, safer access to basic services, employer support, labor rights protection, and reduced exposure to exploitation. Overall, this study highlights the complementary roles of legal recognition, workplace satisfaction, and emotional rootedness in shaping migrant retention, offering implications for decent work, migrant well-being, reduced inequalities, and sustainable labor and migration policies in Thailand’s border regions, particularly in relation to SDG 8 and SDG 10.

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Related topics: Place Attachment and Urban Studies · Migration and Labor Dynamics · Work-Family Balance Challenges