Fossil fuel lock‐in vs clean power: pathways for the developing Asian region by 2050-2060

Information from the abstract

Abstract Rapidly growing electricity demand and entrenched fossil-fuel infrastructure in South and Southeast Asia require urgent attention to avoid a long-term lock-in to a high-emissions pathway. National power-sector expansion plans mostly remain supply-side centric and overlook the potential contribution of demand-side efficiency and flexibility. This study addresses this gap by evaluating how four emerging Asian economies can decarbonize their power sectors between 2050 and 2060. Two national-scale models, PyPSA-BD-IDS and PyPSA-TH-IDS, are developed for Bangladesh and Thailand, complemented by a literature synthesis for India and Indonesia, to assess techno-economic feasibility, land use, financial resource mobilization needs, employment, and stranded-asset risk across pledged and higher-ambition scenarios. All four countries can reach clean power systems around mid-century (2050 for Bangladesh, India, and Thailand, and 2060 for Indonesia) through nationally determined pathways. For Bangladesh and Thailand, integrating energy efficiency and demand-side flexibility generates economy-wide ∼7%–33% more jobs, including both direct and indirect, and reduces fossil-fuel dependency and avoids supply-side capacity overbuild. These yield ∼21%–40% lower emissions than the supply-side-only pathway across the milestone years to 2050. The integrated pathway reduces the supply-side financial resource mobilization need by ∼44%–48% and roughly halves land requirements. Published Indian pathways show the same pattern: DSF integration lowers storage needs and system costs, easing lock-in risk. Indonesia, assessed using the literature on a supply-side-only pathway, requires ∼1034 GW installed capacity and ∼€136 billion cumulative investment by 2060. Across all four countries, the predominance of a young coal fleet (227 GW added in the past two decades), unequal investment capacity, and spatially concentrated fossil-sector employment pose special challenges to a just transition. The integrated pathway in Bangladesh and India reduces the need for supply-side annual investment compared to the 2025 investment level, while for Thailand, it is very close but higher than the planned investment level.

Why this record is monitored

This record has an Impact Signal of 89/100 based on recency, source, collaboration, and bibliographic signals. It prioritizes monitoring and is not a judgment of research quality.

Related topics: Integrated Energy Systems Optimization · Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems · Environmental Impact and Sustainability