Techno-economic assessment and risk analysis of a diesel–renewable hybrid energy system for utility-scale power generation

Information from the abstract

This study evaluates the techno-economic feasibility and financial risk of integrating solar photovoltaics (PV) and battery storage with conventional diesel-based generation for energy-intensive operations in semi-arid regions of Pakistan. A 25-year discounted cash flow model was developed to compare a diesel-only baseline with a solar–diesel hybrid configuration using key indicators including Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), modified internal rate of return (MIRR), and Payback Period. Uncertainty was quantified through sensitivity analysis, scenario modeling, and Monte Carlo simulation, while an XGBoost regression model was trained to identify the most influential technical and economic drivers. Results indicate that the hybrid system reduces lifetime CO 2 emissions by up to 62.9% (15,372 tons avoided) and lowers LCOE from PKR 139.88/kWh (diesel-only) to PKR 59.22/kWh, a reduction of approximately 58%. The project reaches discounted payback within two years and achieves an MIRR of approximately 22% under the base case. Sensitivity and machine learning results consistently identify diesel price and its escalation, followed by the capital costs of solar PV and batteries, as the dominant determinants of economic viability. The findings indicate that hybrid renewable systems can provide financially viable and low-carbon power for diesel-dependent infrastructure in high-irradiance regions. Keywords: Hybrid Energy Systems, Techno-economic Analysis, Solar-Diesel Integration, Machine Learning in Energy, Sustainable Energy Planning, Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE).

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Related topics: Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems · Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure · Photovoltaic Systems and Sustainability