Financial Risk Assessment and Pricing Model for Rubber Community Enterprises in Southern Thailand

Information from the abstract

This research aims to develop and test a financial risk assessment model to analyze factors influencing net profit and selling pricing of rubber community enterprises in southern Thailand, and to propose guidelines for using accounting information to support financial decision-making and policy recommendations. A mixed-methods research approach was used. Qualitative data was collected from 30 stakeholders, and quantitative data was collected from 320 community enterprises in three key rubber-producing provinces in southern Thailand: Songkhla, Nakhon Si Thammarat, and Surat Thani. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Multiple Regression Analysis were used for data analysis. The research findings revealed that the three main factors affecting the sustainability of rubber community enterprises in southern Thailand are financial management skills, access to funding, and member integration. The MCS model showed a probability of loss of 15.17% and a Value at Risk (VaR95) of -22,275.32 baht. Multiple regression analysis showed that processing efficiency had the greatest impact on net profit (B = 70,323.61). Regarding financial and distribution risk, the pricing model yielded an R² = -0.029, indicating that rubber prices are determined by external market mechanisms. This research suggests that community enterprises should apply the MCS model for financial planning to manage risk and allocate reserve funds to manage liquidity to cover the highest risk level according to the VaR95 criterion. Furthermore, relevant agencies should promote the development of skills in using such risk management tools to sustainably enhance the financial capabilities of community enterprises.

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Related topics: Microfinance and Financial Inclusion · Working Capital and Financial Performance · Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction