The economic impact of the U.S.–China trade war on Thailand’s chicken meat and processed chicken exports: A value chain and export demand analysis

Information from the abstract

The U.S.–China trade war has reshaped international trade patterns and created new competitive conditions for agricultural exporters. This raises the need to examine the economic impact of the U.S.–China trade war on Thailand’s broiler industry by combining qualitative value chain analysis with quantitative export demand elasticity estimation. Value chain analysis employs secondary data to examine the structural characteristics of Thailand’s broiler industry. Moreover, the quantitative analysis applies an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) log-log export demand elasticity model that employs quarterly time-series data for 73 periods over 18 years, from Q4 2007 to Q4 2025. The model includes Thailand’s export quantity and export price, China’s export price as a competitor price, the real GDP of major importing countries, exchange rates, a U.S.–China trade war dummy, a COVID-19 dummy, and lagged export quantity. The study indicates that the U.S.–China trade war had an increasingly positive effect, creating additional export opportunities for Thailand. Meanwhile, Thailand still relies on imported broiler breeding stock and feed inputs. This condition creates uncontrollable costs for the industry. In addition, China’s export price mutually influences Thailand’s export price, which reflects substitution and price competition between both countries. The results imply that Thailand should remain export-competitive while strengthening upstream capabilities through domestic development and improving cost management.

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Related topics: Global trade and economics · Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets · COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts