Expansive soils shrink and swell with moisture. A finite-element long-term water-migration model was calibrated with laboratory and TRACON building field data at Denver International Airport, then applied to Colorado Front Range profiles through 2100 under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. Compared with a traditional climate approach, wetting depth was 4% shallower in shallow clay and 8% in deep clay. Depths were similar between scenarios, but SSP5-8.5 had lower saturation. Air temperature dominated rainfall. Climate-adjusted profiles reduced pier length 3-6% with rigid and 5-12% with elastic design.
Key findings
- Wetting depth fell 4% in shallow and 8% in deep clay; SSP5-8.5 saturation was lower; air temperature dominated; pier length fell 3-6% rigid and 5-12% elastic.
Why this matters globally
The work shows that stationary-climate geotechnical rules may over- or under-design and that both wetting depth and degree should inform long-lived infrastructure.
Thai researcher contribution
Kuo Chieh Chao of the Asian Institute of Technology contributes to climate-geotechnical modeling linking foundation engineering with CMIP6.
Limitations to consider
Colorado results and one calibration site do not transfer directly to Thai soils. CMIP6 downscaling, vegetation, drainage, groundwater and construction introduce uncertainty. Shortening piers has safety consequences and needs probabilistic, site-specific design.