Using five China Family Panel Studies waves from 2014-2022, the study finds only modest and fragile wage persistence. Women, particularly married women aged 20-39, show additional negative wage associations across fertility-policy regime stages.
Key findings
- The lagged-wage coefficient is positive but modest and fragile, providing little support for strong intertemporal persistence. Female and childbearing-age exposure interactions are negative, with similar patterns under a narrower age definition.
Why this matters globally
The analysis is relevant to countries revising population policy because it demonstrates how aggregate wage patterns can conceal gendered heterogeneity and offers a diagnostic framework for dynamic wage assessment.
Thai researcher contribution
Researchers from Chiang Mai University's Faculty of Economics and Center of Excellence in Econometrics contribute dynamic econometric expertise to an internationally relevant population-policy question.
Limitations to consider
The panel is short and unbalanced, and the childbearing-women indicator is an exposure proxy rather than a direct measure of fertility intentions, employer expectations or discrimination. The estimates are conditional associations, not causal policy effects.