Bayesian structural time-series analysis of 105,899 truckload records from 260 Thai contract farms compared antibiotic-based and antibiotic-free production during 2015–2020. The estimated +1.10 percentage-point effect crossed zero and was nonsignificant (p=0.207).
Key findings
- Condemnation rose early then declined by 2020, with five structural shifts. The absolute effect was +1.10% (95% CI −1.50 to 3.80) and the relative interval was extremely wide, providing no significant increase.
Why this matters globally
Reducing livestock antibiotics is central to AMR control. Real-production evidence can inform transition planning and welfare surveillance.
Thai researcher contribution
Chiang Mai University and KMITL researchers analyzed a large Thai industry dataset, with Chanporn Chaosap as corresponding author.
Limitations to consider
There was no randomized or concurrent control. Company-wide adaptations were not directly modeled, and condemnation does not capture AMR, drug use, welfare or full cost.
Verify the original sources
AnimalsRead the original article↗DOI: 10.3390/ani16132050