A MaxEnt model using 70 slipper-orchid presence records and 10 predictors achieved training AUC 0.858 and test AUC 0.751. Slope (30.2%), driest-quarter rainfall (22.8%) and warmest-month maximum temperature (17.4%) were most influential, with northern mountain and southern karst hotspots.
Key findings
- Suitability peaked at 500-1,500 m, slopes of 15-35 degrees, intermediate dry-season rain and maximum temperatures around 28-32°C; lowlands and much of the Northeast were classified unsuitable.
Why this matters globally
With Paphiopedilum threatened by habitat loss, collection and climate change, maps can prioritise surveys, microhabitat protection and ex situ action.
Thai researcher contribution
Mahidol environmental researchers integrated botanical and geospatial evidence for Thai orchid conservation.
Limitations to consider
Presence-only MaxEnt is vulnerable to sampling bias, spatial autocorrelation and correlated predictors. Seventy records may be sparse across species, and collection, pollination, dispersal and microhabitat are omitted.