The PDROF framework combines stochastic inflow modeling, Monte Carlo simulation and a Most Likely Line rule. In a 23-year simulation and a 2024 flood case, it outperformed deterministic rules on spill-related metrics.
Key findings
- Across 23 years, total simulated spill was 17.74 MCM and occurred in seven months. For the 2024 event, the new rule reduced spill by 47.42 MCM and storage by 3.46 MCM versus conventional operation, preserving flood-buffer capacity before peak inflow.
Why this matters globally
The framework moves from fixed hydrologic classes toward propagating uncertainty through the operating cycle and may be adaptable to data-scarce settings.
Thai researcher contribution
University of Phayao and Mahasarakham University researchers developed and tested the framework at Kwan Phayao, a reservoir with urban, ecological and water-storage roles.
Limitations to consider
Results depend on one-reservoir model assumptions. Storage/spill metrics do not cover demand, water quality, ecology, damage or all operational constraints, and the 2024 comparison is model-based counterfactual evidence.