Using 2023 data from all 508 Indonesian regencies and cities, the study applied PLS-SEM to relationships among demographic and geographic structure, budgets, service delivery, social cohesion and development outcomes. Positive structural paths and mediation by social cohesion were reported. One-year data can map linked patterns but cannot prove that budgets or cohesion caused the outcomes.
Key findings
- Demographic and geographic structure was linked to budgetary response and service provision; budgets were linked to services; and social cohesion and intermediary variables contributed to development pathways. The abstract omits coefficients, effect sizes and regional heterogeneity, limiting practical interpretation.
Why this matters globally
For decentralised systems, the framework highlights unequal starting conditions: equal allocations may not be equitable. Monitoring should cover resources, service processes and community trust as well as final outcomes.
Thai researcher contribution
Gwyn Peredur Evans of Thammasat University's Faculty of Social Administration collaborated with Universitas Brawijaya on the decentralisation framework. Thailand's role is comparative social-policy scholarship; the data are entirely Indonesian.
Limitations to consider
Single-year cross-sectional data do not establish temporal order. PLS-SEM tests model consistency, not causal identification; aggregate indicators can hide within-municipality inequality, and latent constructs depend on variable selection.