The study assembled 1,395,222 HIV-1 subtype observations from 154 countries between 1990 and 2024 and weighted country estimates using UNAIDS numbers of people living with HIV. In 2020-24, subtype C represented 48.7% globally, followed by subtype A at 11.5% and subtype B at 10.3%. Unique and circulating recombinant forms were also substantial. Regional patterns differed sharply: subtype C dominated southern Africa and south Asia, CRF01_AE southeast Asia, and CRF07_BC increased in east Asia.
Key findings
- For 2020-24, subtype C was 48.7%, A 11.5%, B 10.3%, URFs 5.3%, CRF02_AG 5.1% and CRF01_AE 5.1%. Global proportions were broadly stable after 2000, but recombinants rose in western and central Europe and CRF07_BC in east Asia. Central Africa had the greatest diversity.
Why this matters globally
The distribution matters for diagnostic and viral-load assays, resistance surveillance and vaccine design, whose performance may vary by variant. It also provides a benchmark for tracking changes associated with mobility, migration and treatment selection pressure.
Thai researcher contribution
Dwip Kitayaporn of the HIV Netherlands Australia Thailand Research Collaboration is a coauthor, linking a Thailand-based network to the global map. The abstract does not separately report the Thai sample contribution.
Limitations to consider
Countries and periods with stronger sequencing systems are better represented. Heterogeneous assays and sampling frames introduce inconsistency. UNAIDS weighting adjusts country scale but cannot remove within-country selection bias, and some regions remain sparsely observed.