The study develops a GMM-based path model with exogenous variables for Thailand's 2025-2065 policy planning using mixed methods. Technology and energy were most responsive, followed by the social sector. New scenarios emphasize solar adoption, biomass and public participation beyond BCG alone. Final energy use grows 31.75% and GHG emissions 42.35%, or 389.45 MtCO2e, yet the authors classify this below a carrying-capacity threshold and compatible with long-term objectives.
Key findings
- Technology and energy were most responsive; BCG alone was insufficient; solar, biomass and participation were emphasized; energy rose 31.75%; GHG rose 42.35% or 389.45 MtCO2e and was judged below carrying capacity.
Why this matters globally
The framework links energy policy with social participation in a growing-demand economy and pushes broad green strategies toward measurable adoption rates.
Thai researcher contribution
The Mahasarakham University and Thailand Center of Excellence in Physics team developed the model specifically for Thai policy planning.
Limitations to consider
Data, equations, validation, uncertainty and carrying-capacity definition are absent from the abstract. Emissions growth appears inconsistent with net zero without explicit removals. Biomass is not automatically carbon neutral, and path models are sensitive to causal assumptions and endogeneity.